Ho tloha nakong ea 5 ea lehae, "taelo ea moeli oa litheko" ea EU mabapi le ho romelloa ha oli ea Russia ka leoatleng e qalile ho sebetsa ka molao.Melao e ncha e tla beha theko ea theko ea US $ 60 ka barrel bakeng sa thepa ea oli ea Russia.
E le ho arabela "taelo ea theko ea theko" ea EU, Russia e kile ea bolela hore e ke ke ea fana ka lihlahisoa tsa oli le peterole linaheng tse behang meeli ea theko ho oli ea Russia.Tekanyetso ee ea theko e tla ama bothata ba matla a Europe hakae?Menyetla e metle ea ho romela kantle bakeng sa mmaraka oa lehae oa lik'hemik'hale ke efe?
Na ho lokisa litheko ho tla sebetsa?
Pele ho tsohle, ha re boneng hore na moeli ona oa theko oa sebetsa?
Ho ea ka tlaleho ho websaeteng ea makasine ea American National Interests, liofisiri tsa Amerika li lumela hore siling ea theko e nolofalletsa bareki ho ba le ponaletso e khōloanyane ea theko le ho sebelisa chelete.Esita le haeba Russia e leka ho tlōla moeli oa theko le bareki ba ka ntle ho selekane, chelete ea bona e ntse e tla tepella maikutlong.
Leha ho le joalo, linaha tse ling tse kholo ho ka etsahala hore li se ke tsa ikamahanya le tsamaiso ea siling ea theko 'me li tla itšetleha ka litšebeletso tsa inshorense ntle le tsa EU kapa G7.Sebopeho se rarahaneng sa 'maraka oa lihlahisoa tsa lefats'e se boetse se fana ka monyetla oa hore oli ea Russia e be tlas'a likotlo ho fumana phaello e ngata.
Ho latela tlaleho ea National Interest, ho thehoa ha “moreki” ha ho mohla ho kileng ha e-ba teng.Le hoja mohopolo o tšehetsang moeli oa theko ea oli e le bohlale, moralo oa moeli oa theko o tla mpefatsa feela moferefere oa 'maraka oa lefats'e oa matla, empa o ke ke oa ba le tšusumetso e kholo ho fokotsa chelete ea oli ea Russia.Maemong ana ka bobeli, maikutlo a baetsi ba melao-motheo ea bophirimela mabapi le phello le litšenyehelo tsa lipolotiki tsa ntoa ea bona ea moruo khahlanong le Russia li tla belaelloa.
The Associated Press e tlalehile ka 3rd hore siling ea theko ea $ 60 e ke ke ea utloisa Russia bohloko, ho qotsa bahlahlobisisi.Hajoale, theko ea oli e tala ea Ural ea Russia e theohile ka tlase ho $60, athe theko ea bokamoso ba oli e tala ea London Brent ke $85 barrel.New York Post e qotsitse polelo ea bahlahlobisisi ba JPMorgan Chase ea hore haeba lehlakore la Russia le ka iphetetsa, theko ea oli e ka nyolohela ho lidolara tse 380 ka barrel.
Letona la mehleng la Lichelete la US Mnuchin o kile a re mokhoa oa ho fokotsa theko ea oli e tala ea Russia ha e khonehe feela, empa hape e tletse likheo.O boletse hore "ka lebaka la ho kenngoa ho sa tsotelleng ha lihlahisoa tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng Europe, oli e tala ea Russia e ntse e ka phallela Europe le United States ntle le lithibelo ha feela e feta liteisheneng tsa lipalangoang, 'me boleng bo ekelitsoeng ba liteishene tsa lipalangoang ke molemo o moholo oa moruo. , e leng se tla susumetsa India le Türkiye ho eketsa boiteko ba tsona ba ho reka oli e tala ea Russia le ho hloekisa lihlahisoa tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng ka tekanyo e kholo, e leng ntho e ka ’nang ea fetoha sebaka se secha sa kholo ea moruo bakeng sa linaha tsena tse tsamaeang.”
Nako ena ha ho pelaelo hore e tebile bothata ba matla a Europe.Le hoja thepa ea khase ea tlhaho ea linaha tse ngata tsa Europe e tletse, ho ea ka polelo ea hona joale ea Russia le mokhoa oa nakong e tlang oa ntoa ea Russia Ukraine, Russia e ke ke ea sekisetsa habonolo ho sena, 'me mohlomong moeli oa theko ke leshano feela.
Letona la Litaba tsa Kantle ho Naha la Russia Sergei Lavrov o boletse ka la 1 Tšitoe hore Russia ha e thahaselle boemo bo ka bophirima ba siling ea theko ea oli ea Russia, hobane Russia e tla phethela tšebetso ka kotloloho le balekane ba eona mme e ke ke ea fana ka oli ho linaha tse tšehetsang ho hlophisoa ha oli ea Russia. theko siling.Letsatsing lona leo, Motlatsi oa Motlatsi oa Pele oa Banka e Bohareng ea Russia Yudayeva o boletse hore lilemong tsa morao tjena, 'maraka oa machaba oa oli o' nile oa e-ba le liphetoho tse mabifi khafetsa.Moruo oa Russia le tsamaiso ea lichelete li bontšitse ho tiea ho phello ea 'maraka oa matla,' me Russia e itokiselitse phetoho leha e le efe.
Na mehato ea ho fokotsa theko ea oli e tla lebisa phepelong e thata ea oli machabeng?
Ho ea ka pono ea leano leo Europe le United States li sa kang tsa thibela ka ho feletseng ho romelloa ha oli ea Russia, empa li ile tsa nka mehato ea siling ea theko, Europe le United States li na le tšepo ea ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tsa ntoa Moscow le ho leka ho se be le tšusumetso e kholo ho oli ea lefats'e. phepelo le tlhokeho.Ho boleloa esale pele ho tsoa ho lintlha tse tharo tse latelang hore sekhahla se ka bang teng sa moeli oa theko ea oli se ke ke sa lebisa phepelong e thata ea oli le tlhoko.
Ntlha ea pele, moeli o ka holimo oa theko ea $ 60 ke theko e ke keng ea lebisa ho hloleheng ha Russia ho romela oli kantle ho naha.Rea tseba hore ka karolelano theko ea thekiso ea oli ea Russia ho tloha ka June ho ea ho October e ne e le lidolara tse 71, 'me theko ea theolelo ea thepa ea oli ea Russia ho ea India ka October e ne e ka ba lidolara tse 65.Ka November, tlas'a tšusumetso ea mehato ea ho fokotsa theko ea oli, oli ea Ural e ile ea theoha ka tlase ho li-yuan tse 60 ka makhetlo a mangata.Ka la 25 Pulungoana, theko ea thomello ea oli ea Russia Primorsk Port e ne e le lidolara tse 51.96 feela, hoo e ka bang 40% e tlase ho feta oli e tala ea Brent.Ka 2021 le pele, theko ea thekiso ea oli ea Russia le eona hangata e tlase ho $60.Ka hona, ho ke ke ha khoneha hore Russia e se ke ea rekisa oli ka lebaka la theko e tlaase ho feta $ 60.Haeba Russia e sa rekise oli, e tla lahleheloa ke halofo ea chelete ea eona ea lichelete.Ho tla ba le mathata a tebileng ts'ebetsong ea naha le ho phela ha sesole.Ka hona,
mehato ea ho fokotsa litheko e ke ke ea lebisa phokotsong ea phepelo ea oli ea machabeng.
Ea bobeli, oli ea Venezuela e tla khutlela Jianghu, e leng temoso ho Russia.
Bosiung ba ho kena ts'ebetsong ea molao oa thibelo ea oli e sa tsoakoang le moeli oa theko ea oli, Mopresidente oa Amerika Biden ka tšohanyetso o ile a lokolla litaba tse monate Venezuela.Ka la 26 Pulungoana, Lefapha la Lichelete la US le ile la lumella Chevron ea matla hore e qalelle khoebo ea eona ea ho hlahloba oli Venezuela.
Ho lokela ho hlokomeloe hore lilemong tsa morao tjena, United States e fane ka tumello ka ho latellana linaha tse tharo tse hlahisang matla, e leng Iran, Venezuela le Russia.Hona joale, e le ho qoba ho tsoela pele ha Russia ho sebelisa libetsa tsa matla, United States e lokolla oli ea Venezuela ho hlahloba le ho leka-lekanya.
Phetoho ea leano la mmuso oa Biden ke sesupo se hlakileng haholo.Nakong e tlang, eseng Chevron feela, empa le lik'hamphani tse ling tsa oli li ka tsosolosa khoebo ea tsona ea ho hlahloba oli Venezuela neng kapa neng.Hona joale, tlhahiso ea oli ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea Venezuela e ka bang libarele tsa 700000, ha pele ho likotlo, tlhahiso ea oli ea letsatsi le letsatsi e feta libarele tse limilione tse 3.Litsebi tsa indasteri li bolela esale pele hore matla a tlhahiso ea oli ea Venezuela a tla fola kapele ho libarele tse limilione tse 1 ka letsatsi nakong ea likhoeli tse 2-3.Nakong ea halofo ea selemo, e ka fola ho fihla ho libarele tse limilione tse 3 ka letsatsi.
Ea boraro, oli ea Iranian e boetse e hohla matsoho.Likhoeling tse ts'eletseng tse fetileng, Iran e ntse e buisana le Europe le United States, ka tšepo ea ho sebelisa taba ea nyutlelie e le phapanyetsano bakeng sa ho tlosa likotlo tsa oli le ho eketsa thekiso ea oli kantle ho naha.Moruo oa Iran o bile thata haholo lilemong tsa morao tjena, 'me likhohlano tsa malapeng li matlafetse.E tswelapele ho eketsa diromelwantle tsa oli hore e phele.Hang ha Russia e fokotsa ho romelloa ha oli kantle ho naha, ke monyetla o motle oa hore Iran e eketse thekiso ea oli kantle ho naha.
Ea bone, ha linaha tse ngata li ntse li tsoela pele ho nyolla sekgahla sa tsoala ho laola inflation, kholo ea moruo oa lefats'e e tla theoha ka 2023, 'me tlhokahalo ea matla e tla fokotseha.OPEC e boletse esale pele joalo ka makhetlo a mangata.Leha Europe le United States li ka beha likotlo tsa siling ea theko holim'a matla a Russia, phepelo ea oli e tala lefatšeng ka bophara e ka fihlela tekanyo ea mantlha.
Na moeli oa theko ea oli o tla lebisa ho phahama ho hoholo ha litheko tsa oli tsa machabeng?
Ka la 3 Tšitoe, ha ho tobane le moeli oa theko ea oli ea Russia e tla kengoa ts'ebetsong ka la 5 Tšitoe, litheko tsa oli tsa Brent futures li ne li khutsitse, li koalehile ka lidolara tse 85,42 ka barrel, 1,68% e tlase ho feta letsatsi le fetileng la khoebo.Ho ipapisitsoe le tlhahlobo e felletseng ea lintlha tse fapaneng, moeli oa theko ea oli o ka theola theko ea oli feela, empa o sa lebise ho phahama ha theko ea oli.Joalo ka ha litsebi tsa selemo sena tse khothalelitseng hore likotlo khahlano le Russia li ka lebisa litheko tse ntseng li phahama tsa oli li hlotsoe ho bona theko ea oli e ka bang $150, ba ke ke ba bona theko ea oli e fetang $100 e ka nkang libeke tse peli ka 2023.
Taba ea pele, tekano lipakeng tsa phepelo ea oli ea machabeng le tlhoko e thehiloe kamora ntoa.Ka mor'a moferefere oa phepelo le tlhokahalo karolong ea bobeli, Europe e tsosolositse mocha o mocha oa phepelo ea oli o sa itšetleheng ka Russia, e leng motheo oa ho theoha ha litheko tsa oli lefatšeng ka bophara karolong ea boraro.Ka nako e ts'oanang, le hoja linaha tse peli tse nang le botsoalle tsa Russia li ile tsa eketsa karolo ea theko ea oli e tsoang Russia, ka bobeli ba ile ba lula hoo e ka bang 20%, ba sa fihle ho itšetleha ha EU ka oli ea Russia e ka bang 45% pele ho 2021. Esita le haeba tlhahiso ea oli ea Russia e emisa. , e ke ke ea ba le phello e tebileng phepelong ea oli ea machaba.
Ea bobeli, Venezuela le Iran li emetse maemo a holimo ka tjantjello.Matla a tlhahiso ea oli a linaha tsena tse peli a ka fokotsa ka botlalo phokotso ea phepelo ea oli e bakoang ke ho koaloa ha tlhahiso ea oli ea Russia.Phepelo le tlhoko ha e le hantle li leka-lekane, 'me theko e ke ke ea phahama.
Ntlha ea boraro, nts'etsopele ea mehloli e mecha ea matla e kang matla a moea le matla a letsatsi, hammoho le nts'etsopele ea bioenergy, e tla nkela tlhokahalo ea matla a mang a petrochemical, e leng e 'ngoe ea lintlha tse thibelang ho phahama ha theko ea oli.
Ea bone, ka mor'a ts'ebetsong ea siling ea oli ea Russia, ho itšetlehile ka kamano ea papiso ea theko, ho phahama ha oli e seng ea Russia ho tla thibeloa ke theko e tlaase ea oli ea Russia.Haeba Middle East Petroleum 85 le Russian Petroleum 60 li na le kamano e batlang e tsitsitse ea papiso ea theko, ha theko ea peterole ea Middle East e phahama haholo, bareki ba bang ba tla phallela ho Russia Petroleum.Ha theko ea oli Bochabela bo Hare e theoha haholo motheong oa 85, Europe le United States li tla theola theko ea siling bakeng sa oli ea Russia, e le hore litheko tse peli li fihlelle tekano e ncha.
"Taelo ea moeli oa theko" ea Bophirimela e tsosa 'maraka oa matla
Russia e batla ho theha "selekane sa khase ea tlhaho"
Ho tlalehoa hore bahlahlobisisi ba bang le ba boholong ba ile ba lemosa hore "taelo ea moeli oa theko" e ka bophirimela e ka 'na ea halefisa Moscow' me ea etsa hore e khaotse ho fana ka khase ea tlhaho linaheng tsa Europe.Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Mphalane selemong sena, linaha tsa Europe li ile tsa kenya 42% ea khase ea tlhaho e tsoang Russia ho feta nako e tšoanang ka 2021. Kabo ea Russia ea khase ea tlhaho e tsoang linaheng tsa Europe e fihlile tlalehong ea 17.8 billion cubic metres.
Ho ile ha boela ha tlalehoa hore Russia e ntse e buisana ka ho thehoa ha “selekane sa khase ea tlhaho” le Kazakhstan le Uzbekistan.'Muelli oa Mopresidente oa Kazakh Kassym Jomart Tokayev o boletse hore ona ke mohato o hlahisitsoeng ke Mopresidente oa Russia Putin.
Peskov o boletse hore mohopolo oa ho theha selekane o thehiloe haholo-holo ho nahanoeng ea moralo o kopanetsoeng oa phepelo ea matla, empa lintlha li ntse li le tlas'a lipuisano.Peskov o ile a etsa tlhahiso ea hore Kazakhstan e ka boloka “libilione tse likete tsa lidolara tse sebelisoang liphaepheng” ka ho tlisa khase ea tlhaho ea Russia.Peskov o boetse a re morero ona o tšepile hore linaha tse tharo li tla matlafatsa tšebelisano 'me li ntlafatse tšebeliso ea tsona ea khase ea malapeng le mekhoa ea lipalangoang.
Monyetla oa 'maraka o hokae?
Khaello ea matla Europe le ho phahama ho hoholo ha theko ho tla lebisa ho khaello e eketsehileng ea khase ea tlhaho e sebelisoang tlhahiso ea indasteri, 'me litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea lik'hemik'hale tsa Europe li tla phahama haholo.Ka nako e ts'oanang, khaello ea matla le litšenyehelo tse phahameng li ka lebisa ho phokotso ea boima ba limela tsa lehae tsa lik'hemik'hale, e leng se bakang lekhalo le leholo la phepelo ea lik'hemik'hale, e leng ho khothalletsang ho phahama ho hoholo ha theko ea lihlahisoa tsa lehae Europe.
Hajoale, phapang ea theko ea lihlahisoa tse ling tsa lik'hemik'hale pakeng tsa China le Europe e ntse e eketseha, 'me palo ea lihlahisoa tsa lik'hemik'hale tsa China e lebelletsoe ho eketseha haholo.Nakong e tlang, monyetla oa phepelo ea China ho matla a setso le matla a macha o lebelletsoe ho tsoela pele, monyetla oa litšenyehelo tsa lik'hemik'hale tsa China tse amanang le Europe o tla tsoela pele ho ba teng, 'me tlholisano ea lefats'e le phaello ea indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale ea China e lebelletsoe ho ntlafala le ho feta.
Guohai Securities e lumela hore karolo ea hona joale ea indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale ea motheo e boemong bo botle: har'a bona, ho na le tebello ea ntlafatso e fokolang indastering ea matlo a matlo, e leng molemo bakeng sa likarolo tsa polyurethane le soda molora;ho belisoa ha koluoa ea matla a Europe, ho shebana le mefuta ea livithamini e nang le bokhoni bo phahameng ba tlhahiso Europe;Ketane ea indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale ea phosphorus e tlase e na le litšobotsi tsa indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale tsa temo le kholo e ncha ea matla;Lekala la mabili leo phaello ea lona e tsosolositsoeng butle-butle.
Polyurethane: Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ho hlahisoa ha Article 16 ea leano la ts'ehetso ea lichelete tsa thekiso ea matlo le matlo ho tla thusa ho ntlafatsa moeli oa 'maraka oa thekiso ea matlo le ho khothaletsa tlhokahalo ea polyurethane;Ka lehlakoreng le leng, matla a tlhahiso ea MDI le TDI Europe a ikarabella ka karolo e phahameng.Haeba bothata ba matla bo ntse bo tsoela pele ho bela, tlhahiso ea MDI le TDI Europe e ka fokotseha, e leng se molemo bakeng sa thomello ea thepa ea lapeng.
Soda molora: Haeba 'maraka oa thekiso ea matlo le thepa ea lehae o ntlafatsoa butle-butle, ho tla ba molemo hore tlhokahalo ea khalase e bataletseng e lokisoe.Ka nako e ts'oanang, matla a macha a khalase ea photovoltaic e tla boela e khanna tlhokahalo ea molora oa soda.
Li-vithamine: Matla a tlhahiso ea vithamine A le vithamine E Europe a ikarabella ka karolo e kholo.Haeba mathata a matla a Europe a ntse a tsoela pele ho bela, tlhahiso ea vithamine A le vithamine E e ka 'na ea fokotseha hape, e tšehetsa theko.Ho feta moo, phaello ea ho rua likolobe tse ruuoang lapeng e ntlafetse butle-butle nakong e tlang e haufi, e lebeletsoeng hore e tsose cheseho ea lihoai ho tlatsetsa, kahoo e susumetsa tlhokahalo ea vithamine le lisebelisoa tse ling tsa lijo.
Indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale ea phosphorus: Ka ho lokolloa ha tlhoko ea polokelo ea mariha bakeng sa manyolo, theko ea manyolo a phosphate e lebelletsoe ho tsitsisa le ho phahama;Ka nako e ts'oanang, tlhoko ea phosphate ea tšepe bakeng sa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla le polokelo ea matla e ntse e tsoela pele ho ba matla.
Lithaere: Qalong, ha lithaere tse neng li koaletsoe likoung tsa Amerika li ne li fetoloa lethathamo la barekisi, lethathamo la likanale tsa Amerika le ne le le holimo, empa.
Ka khothaletso ea ho ea sebakeng sa polokelo, litaelo tsa kantle ho naha tsa likhoebo tsa mabili li lebelletsoe ho hlaphoheloa butle-butle.
JinDun Chemicale na le limela tse sebetsanang le OEM tse Jiangsu, Anhui le libakeng tse ling tse sebelisaneng ka lilemo tse mashome, li fana ka tšehetso e tiileng bakeng sa lits'ebeletso tse ikhethileng tsa tlhahiso ea lik'hemik'hale tse khethehileng.JinDun Chemical e tsitlallela ho theha sehlopha se nang le litoro, ho etsa lihlahisoa tse nang le seriti, tse hlokolosi, tse thata, 'me li tsoele pele ho ba molekane ea tšepahalang le motsoalle oa bareki!Leka ho etsalisebelisoa tse ncha tsa lik'hemik'haletlisa bokamoso bo molemo lefatšeng!
Nako ea poso: Jan-03-2023